From the press release of MPLS Realtors:
For the 13th consecutive month, there were more pending sales than there were a year ago. July saw 5,174 signed purchase agreements, up 16.0 percent from July 2008 and the strongest July showing since 2005. Of these sales, 43.6 percent were lender-mediated foreclosures and short sales.
Maybe a half-way decent recovery is on it’s way.
- Back to sustainable prices and a little bit of affordability
- Pending home sales are up for 3 straight months year over year
- Existing and new home inventories continue to fall (over 21% from a year ago)
- I haven’t seen any builders puking out inventory lately at a rapid pace circa 2007. Some are starting to post a profit again, see Toll Brothers first profit in 16 quarters.
- Mortgage apps have been up and down over the past few months so not quite stabilized.
- and throw in a little bit of affordability
The only thing missing is some decent job growth and how many homes the banks are sitting on. Mortgage defaults aren’t getting any less, just check the public notice section of your local paper.
Two Different Ends
There is definitely different things happening at each end of the market. The upper bracket continues to struggle and the lower end continues to see inventory shrink.
Gotta feel for the million dollar and up market though. A couple of months back it was 33 month supply of homes for sale and now that number has ballooned up past 40 months.
That can’t bold well after this report from CNN that for first time in 15 years homes sizes are shrinking. New homes are now about 7% smaller, so good luck selling those giants over 5000 square feet.
On the other end, homes continue to have strong sales throughout the lower-end mainly because of that housing tax credit.
Will have to see what happens over the next few months. Will a flurry of home purchases occur as buyers try to cram in purchases before the December 1st just last year around the same time as buyer’s hurried in before zero down disappeared.
Pic used from the housing supply outlook from the Minneapolis Assoc of Realtors
